Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Success Stories in Tough Economic Times

The world is full of success stories that emerged in tough times. If you can survive or even prosper in this era, imagine what you can do when the economy looks brighter.

Wealth is created in many forms. Over our 23 years in the investment and financial industries, we have been fortunate to witness most of them. Some people want to “Get Rich Quick,” while others prefer to be “The Millionaire Next Door” who accumulates assets slowly.

Some acquire their assets by simply being at the right software company at the right time. Others create their wealth through the diversification of family business or inheritance.

There is an additional group that will rise to the top in the next economic rebound. They are the business owners who are inventing and creating each day. Some are high tech, some very low tech. For the most part, I put my bet on the sack lunch crowd over the corporate cafeteria crowd - no disrespect intended.

Have any of you ever met Danny House? You may know him better as “Dan the Sausageman.” His story of success starts from the lunch sack crowd and inspires business owners to keep moving forward. Here’s his story:

‘Dan the Sausageman’ was born in 1963. Throughout high school, he didn’t do much except stay away from drugs and alcohol. He could famously state with a straight face that he never touched a beer until college.

Dan’s notable attribute was his love for soccer and he could be found playing in the neighborhoods around South Seattle. Dan’s soccer skills brought him to college. He usually stayed at a university long enough for the Dean to see that he was attending more social events than classes. Then, just as quickly, he would attend another university.

It ended up being a great way to see the West Coast and eventually the world. Danny played professional soccer in Germany and enjoyed the country’s many BierHaus’s along the way.

One evening, he was introduced to a nice young woman named Claudia in Hamburg who thought Dan was too juvenile to pursue a relationship. He promised Claudia he would grow up someday.

One day, while shoveling snow and tossing it at some passing school kids, Dan fell to the ground in pain. Too many tough hits on the soccer field had ended his playing days. Soon after, he found himself in a nice waterfront park in Greece with the local stray cats and dogs.

Without many choices, he answered an ad and signed on to be the “first mate and cook” on a nice French sailboat owned by a wealthy Brit named Len. After a few days at sea, Len and his wife realized Dan knew little about sailing and even less about good food. He promised that the food would improve and so would the quality of the sails. They kept him on and he developed another lifelong friend on the far reaches of the globe.

Within a few years, Danny was back in Seattle, jobless and without a degree. Now in his late 20s Dan met a salesman with a route across Western Washington selling cheese and sausage to businesses along old highway 99.

With a crate under his arms, Dan walked into car dealerships and transmission shops and yelled, ”I am Dan the Sausageman, who wants a sample?” Dan grew that business into a nice little empire.

Yet, Dan had bigger plans.

Within a few years, he developed a tidy business selling corporate gift boxes all over the world. Chocolates, pâtés, and even salmon were added to the original boxes. Crates were delivered with chess and checkers sets on the lids. Lucky recipients were known to finish all the goodies in a day and send a note saying how painful and fun eating every item in one sitting can be.

Dan sought financial security and realized he needed to own his own building to obtain his goal. Good friends of Dan’s, Ernie and Phyllis who owned the Highline Tin Shop, lent Dan some money so he could buy their building. After years of diligent payments, the building belonged to Dan. He now had room for the gift shop, packing facilities and enough space left over to open a bar and restaurant called ‘The Tin Room.’

For Dan House, the hours are long, but his commute from home is just a mile. Dan sailed for years on the Puget Sound with his boat, the Splash Down Two, yes, the same boat he learned to sail on while employed as a cook by Len the Brit and his wife.

Eventually Dan sold the boat after his extra-curricular time was taken raising two great sons, Max and Oskar, and a third on the way with his lovely wife Claudia. Yes, that Claudia, the one Dan met years before in Germany as a young misfit.

Wealth comes in many forms. Creating wealth while doing what you love is its own reward.


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POSTED BY Dennis Daugs AT 10:06 am 323 COMMENTS

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Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Hitchcock the Recession and Our Banks

This recession is more like a Hitchcock thriller than a modern day horror movie. You know what’s coming but you don’t know when, where, why or who. Blood and guts are replaced with innuendo and heavy plot lines.

Each week, I apologize to our editors for my obsession with banks – but I really think it all begins and ends with what happens within those walls.

This thriller moves slowly, taking baby steps to the next scene; first corporate layoffs, then missed mortgage payments, next foreclosures and then bankruptcies.

The corporate version goes like this: first slowing sales, then reduced profit forecasts and next stocks plummet.

Most will agree that the real estate mess is not over. Banks will continue to incur losses and take over more properties. Then the banking regulators will step in to close down failing institutions. The plot is already written in this story. It’s the players who remain unknown.

Dallas and Detroit will fall further than Seattle and San Francisco, they usually do. Those areas that have yet to fall will also see their day. Rural shopping centers will go bust while urban ones will simply change hands at lower prices. As they say, “the pond always dries up from the outside.”

I expect that the banks that fall will surprise us. Who knew until last weekend’s Seattle Times article that a bank in downtown Seattle could make an illustrious “bottom 10″ list of the most troubled institutions in our state? Years ago, the Seattle PI had a similar bottom 10; a list of the 10 worst college football teams in the nation. Without it, the Fighting Owls of Rice University would never have sold T-shirts emblazoned with the slogan “We’re Number One!”

Fine institutions like Evergreen Bank and Seattle Bank have to dig deeper to supplant the likes of WestSound Bank. But hey, anything is possible.

What is coming next, and when you ask?

Those two unknowns are selling a lot of coffee these days as investors both large and small burn the midnight oil trying to play this chess match to something more than a draw. Some sit at the infamous courthouse steps bidding on foreclosed properties hoping to hit singles and doubles through sweat equity. Others gather with a team of analysts to map out the carnage and plan the next trophy asset ready to fall.

I have lost count of the number of players who have walked through the grand Marlborough Condo Conversion only to realize that a 100-year-old apartment building foreclosed upon in the middle of construction may be too expensive at any price.

Similarly, drawing the attention of all is the big question of who is going to be the yenta who marries a landlord and tenant to the WaMu building now that JP Morgan Chase doesn’t see the logic of an East Coast and West Coast world headquarters. The rumors continue to build and for the sake of our Northwest economy let’s hope that one of our creative capitalists completes a deal.

Here is what we do know.

There is a lot of money out there and there is no money out there. The banks who have it can’t lend if it makes capital ratios drop below 10 percent. For those of you unfamiliar with a capital ratio the simple answer is that a bank can lend 10 times its equity – 10 percent capital ratio - before the regulators want the banks to pull its expansion. My apologies to the bank executives among our readers for the fourth grade version of the problem. The banks that don’t have money are told to clean up the books and sell off those problem loans to the highest bidder. In many cases, the highest bidder is the only bidder.


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POSTED BY Dennis Daugs AT 12:15 pm 137 COMMENTS

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